🔗 Share this article

Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.